The Failing Strategies of Dying Political Systems

I will begin the elaboration of my idea concerning economic minerals and their use in order to find a real solution for Afghanistan with a Bertrand Russell quote about geological materials: “It is to steel and oil and uranium, not to martial ardor, that the modern nations must look for victory in war” [1]. Here many questions arise concerning the failure of different types of Afghan governments during the last 200 years and why the same errors are repeated again and again. What is wrong? Even intellectuals and educated people were unable to find answers and real solutions to the different types of problems in Afghanistan. At present, more than forty countries are assisting the Karzai regime, but the regime is turning more and more reactionary, even beginning to look like a fundamentalist one. Why, why, why?

In order to answer these questions, let us first define politics.

Today the general definition of politics is a plan or course of action of a government, a political party, business or other organizations, or even a person, intended to influence and determine decisions, actions, and other matters [2]. Another web side define politics as “The basic principles (fundamental norms, rules, or values that represent what is desirable and positive for a person, group, organization, or community, and help it in determining the rightfulness or wrongfulness of its actions) by which a government is guided” [3] .

According to these definitions, it is free for everybody, depending on the actors plan and tricks to be used, to access power and then decide and act in order to change how people live. But there is no guarantee that everything goes well, as today evidently most governments are having a lot of problems, especially economic ones. Economics is consequently the fundamental problem and the basis for other social problems like human rights, culture, language, religion etc. Economy being the base, therefore rich countries with a good economy do not share the problems of poor countries, and they will decide over the poor countries and change their political systems to further their own interests, as we can see in lots of places  around the World, like in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Singapore, Middle East and many others in Africa and Latin America.

Some rich governments have made an export package for revolution, or fundamental Islamic rules, or democracy, in reality a copy of their own social or governmental systems, like with Iran, Saudi Arabia or the US. They then try to send these models to the poor countries, or at least to make spies out of fractions or parties within the poor country.

This strategy has been tried many times over the course of history, but the results are not good, or even negative, making things worse for the poor countries.

The system where elders decide and govern still exists in some countries with a tribal system, and the elders there will decide over the villages. If we try to change this system to a democratic one immediately, it will be dangerous; it is clear that the existing system will react against the imported system and the new model, because in their eyes it looks very strange and unnecessary, even if the new model is modern and worldwide acceptable as a system for freedom. But why it is dangerous and unacceptable for the elders? 

Most of the Afghan population is rural and agricultural. The system is like the European feudal system in that especially the fertile lands are owned by a few families. This political, economic dimension is supported by the religious one in that the legitimacy of ownership is defended by religious argumentys. Therefore, any develpment in the Afghan countryside in relation to industrial production, trade, democracy, and education is naturally frowned upon in that it threatens the existing power structure. But on the other hand, the existing economic structure is not sufficent to secure the livelihood of the present population, which is why we se a millions of refugees from rural Afghanistan around the World.

Due to the corruption of the persent Karzai government, there is no prospect for this situation to change.

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[1] The Impact of Science of Society.

[2] http://www.thefreedictionary.com/policy.

[3] http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/policy.html.

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Economy and its Relations

Economy comprises the economic system of a country or a region, the labor, capital, and land resources, and the economic agents that socially participate in the production, exchange, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area.

The Economic System is the structure that guides production and all the other relationship systems that are related to, or it is open to submission from different areas of research covering issues related to broader aspects of financial and economic systems, including private and state banking, financial markets, and development, macro and micro policies and their effects, and other traditional issues critical in developed, developing, and emerging economies [4].

In a simple definition, economy is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services [5]. By another definition, economics is the social science that examines how people choose to use limited or scarce resources in attempting to satisfy their unlimited wants [6]. Or this definition: An entire network of producers, distributors, and consumers of goods and services in a local, or national, community [7].

A given economy is the end result of a process that involves its technological evolution, history, and social organization, as well as its geography, natural resource endowment, and ecology, as main factors. These factors give context, content, and set the conditions and parameters in which an economy functions [8], topics which are outside the scope of this article.

Every person belonging to an economic system may expect a fair distribution, but as mentioned above most governments (like Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Middle East, and some countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America etc.) do service this facility only to their relatives, ethnicity, and their supporters.

It is clear, that if production was distributed fairly it would give opportunity to develop all parts of the people in all directions, and the result would be a general improvement of life and multidimensional progress. But this remains a dream.

The continuation of the current situation will increasingly be causing distrust between peoples and governments, individuals and groups, ethnic groups, and nationalities. Indeed, the problem between governments and people manifests itself around the World, like in the Middle East or in the distance between the Obama team and the US people.

In Afghanistan, we see growth of many type of conflicts (ethnic, language, regional, religious, parties and so on), with each ethnic group seeing only to their own interests so that today we have in Afghanistan ethnic cultures, economic positions (as the porterage job to Hazara etnics, the governance and macro-trade jobs for the Pashtuns and Tajiks, small business and jobs to other small nations and so on) and each of them strive to maintain and insulate their position. The people accepts this as a permanent situation and a just one, conserving their identities and cultures.

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[4] Richard Frensch, Managing Editor, Economic Systems and Ali M. Kutan, Co-Editor, Economic Systems from “journal Economic Systems”), in network address:  (http://www.elsevier.com/framework_products/promis_misc/ecosys-for%20contributors0211.pdf).

[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics.

[6] http://ingrimayne.com/econ/Introduction/Defintns.html.

[7] http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/economy.html.

[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy.

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Economy of Afghanistan

Afghanistan is an impoverished and least developed country, one of the Worlds’ poorest. In 2010, the nation's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $16.63 billion and the GDP per capital was about $1,000.[9] Its unemployment rate is 35 % [10] and roughly 36% of its citizens live below the poverty line.[11] About 42 percent of the population lives on less than $1 a day, according to USAID.[12] However, due to the infusion of multi-billion dollars in international assistance and investments, as well as remittances from expats, the economy has been steadily improving, growing at approximately 12 percent per year during the past six years.[13] It is also due to improvements in agricultural production, which is the backbone of the nation's economy because over 75% of its citizens are involved in this field.[14]

One of the main drivers for the current economic recovery is the return of over 5 million Afghan expatriates, who brought with them fresh energy, entrepreneurship and wealth-creating skills as well as much needed funds to startup businesses. A number of small factories began operating in different parts of the country in recent years, which not only provide revenue to the government but also create jobs. The Afghan rugs have become a popular product again and this gives the large number of rug weavers in the country a chance to earn better income. While the country's current account deficit is largely financed with the donor money, only a small portion is provided directly to the government budget. The rest is provided to non-budgetary expenditure and donor-designated projects through the United Nations system and non-governmental organizations.

The Afghan Ministry of Finance is focusing on improved revenue collection and public sector ex-penditure discipline. Since 2003, over 16 new banks have opened in the country, including Afgha-nistan International Bank, Kabul Bank, Azizi Bank, Pashtany Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, First Micro Finance Bank, and others. The Afghanistan Bank serves as the central bank of the nation and the "Afghani" (AFN) is the national currency, with an exchange rate of ca. 50 Afghanis to 1 US dollar.

Afghanistan is a member of the SAARC, ECO and the OIC. It is known for producing some of the finest pomegranates, grapes, apricots, melons, and several other fresh and dry fruits, including nuts.[15] According to the World Bank, economic growth has been strong and has generated better livelihoods since late 2001.[16] Opium production in Afghanistan has soared to a record in 2007 with about 3 million Afghans reported to be involved in the business [17] but then declined significantly in the years following.[18] The government started programs to help reduce cultivation of poppy, and by 2010 it was reported that 24 out of the 34 provinces were free from poppy grow. [19]

The web site [20] reports that Afghanistan budget expenditure is nr.118 on the world wide list with $ 3.300.000.000 in 2009/2010. Measured according to real growth rate, however, Afghanistan comes out as no. 6 from top on the World list with an annual GDP growth rate of 8,9 % (2011), see figure below [21].

Fig. (1) The GDP real growth rate percent of 2011

country ranks, with Afghanistan no.6 on the list [21].

The same source shows that Afghanistan is no. 32 with 36 million populations below the poverty and no. 146 on the list of budget-revenues country ranks with $ 1 billion, but no. 118 on the list of expenditures budget 2011 country with $ 3.3 billion.

Since 2003, when the National Endowment for Democracy funded the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the organization has been researching into business growth and economic development in Afghanistan. Their report is based on various interviews and discussions with business people in Afghanistan’s six principal cities: (Kabul 204), Jalalabad (123), Mazar-e Sharif (113), Herat (111), Kandahar (102) and Khost (85), a total of 738 interviews with business owners.

According to the interviews, security challenges, corruption, and unreliable electricity, are the key obstacles to economic development. These survey results highlight the Afghan business community’s desire to engage policymakers in Afghanistan on the numerous pressing business development challenges of the country. While chambers of commerce and other business associations exit and the vast majority of Afghan businesspeople recognize their utility and influence, these organizations lack the capacity to provide necessary technical and advocacy services to the business community [22]. The CIPE interview report comprises many charts, of which three are included below (Fig.2: A, B and C).

(A)

(B)

(C)

Fig. (2) Interviews by International Private Enterprise (CIPE) about the involvement of local business in government contracts, in which the majority answered "no" as to wheather they have been bidding (A); about half of the respondents answer that they belong to a business association (B);  and (C), that the overwhelming majority have been in operation for quite some time (6-11 years) [22].

The intertwined economy of Afghanistan is not a recent construction but was essentially developed during wars over the three past decades. From 1953 to 1963 Afghanistan’s Prime Minister Mohammed Daoud Khan had solicited military and economic assistance from both the United States (US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), believing that, without rapid growth, Afghanistan would become severely politically fragmented. The country received 50 % of its foreign aid from the Soviet Union between 1950 and 1970, and 30 % from the United States during that same time span [23].

After the USSR entry into Afghanistan in 1979, the western aid was terminated, and USSR paid around $ 200 million per year [23].

During the war against USSR and subsequently during the period with internal fighting from 1992 to 2001, the economy of Afghanistan was almost completely destroyed, what remained was village based economy, depending mostly on Pakistan and Iran.

After 2001, Afghanistan received aid from about 40 western countries, illustrated by the following figure concerning foreign aid and GDP growth during 2001 to 2008 [23].

Fig. (3) The aids and GDP growth during 2001 to 2008,

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2002-2009  [23].

Afghanistan therefore does not have an independent economy, which in effect creates obstacles to the development of the country’s politics, culture and other social parameters, feeding all sorts of internal conflicts.

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[10]"35% (2008 est.)". The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html?countryName=Afghanistan&countryCode=af&regionCode=sas&#af. Retrieved October 20, 2010.

[11] "36% (FY08/09)". The World Factbook. CIA. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2046.html?countryName=Afghanistan&countryCode=af&regionCode=sas&#af. Retrieved October 20, 2010.

[12] "Afghanistan: Food still unaffordable for millions". IRIN. March 12, 2009. http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83417. Retrieved October 11, 2010.

[13] "USAID/Afghanistan Strategy". USAID. http://afghanistan.usaid.gov//en/Page.CountryOverview.aspx. Retrieved October 20, 2010.[dead link]

[14] "Objective: Accelerating market-led growth in agriculture". USAID. http://afghanistan.usaid.gov/en/Program.19c.aspx. Retrieved October 20, 2010.[dead link]

[15] U.S. Embassy, Kabul, Third Afghanistan Marble Conference, May 25, 2011.

[16] Exporting Afghanistan, by P.J. Tobia. Nov 17, 2009.

[17] "Poverty Reduction – Poverty in Afghanistan". Web.worldbank.org. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/EXTSAREGTOPPOVRED/0,,contentMDK:20574056~menuPK:493447~pagePK:34004173~piPK:34003707~theSitePK:493441,00.html. Retrieved December 29, 2009.

[18] UN horrified by surge in opium trade in Helmand.

[19] Afghan opium production in significant decline, UNDOC.

[20] http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/budget_expenditures_2011_0.html.

[21] http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_real_growth_rate_2011_0.html.

[22] Sullivan, J.D., Ph.D.; Wilson, A.; Nasib, M.; Naim, M. and Wallace, T., (2009-2010): Afghan Business Attitudes on the Economy, Government, and Business Organizations- 2009-2010 Afghan Business Survey Final report.

[23] Nijssen, S. (Otober 2010): Special Report on Economic Development in Afghanistan. The Afghan Economy: A Brief History.

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Mining in Afghanistan

It is estimated that forty million years ago the tectonic plates of India-Europe, Asia and Africa collided in a massive upheaval. This upheaval created the region of towering mountains that now includes Afghanistan. This process also deposited vast amounts of different minerals and other geologic materials, including gold, copper, lithium, iron ore, cobalt, natural gas, and oil etc. in a country later written off as war-torn and poverty stricken [24]. But the fact remains, that Afghanistan's resources could make it the richest mining region on Earth [25].

According to recent U.S. Geological surveys that were funded by the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Industry, Afghanistan may be possessing up to 36 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 3.6 billion barrels of petroleum and up to 1,325 million barrels of natural gas liquids. Other recent reports show that the country has huge amounts of gold, copper, coal, iron ore, and other minerals. In 2010, Pentagon officials along with geologists from the United States announced the discovery of $1–3 trillion worth of untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan [26]. Several independent websites describe the value of Afghanistan like: ”Afghanistan’s resources could make it the richest mining region on the Earth”, and a memo from the Pentagon stated that Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium” (a deposit of which the West uses vast amounts, e.g. for batteries and other products) [27][28][29][30][31].

Analysts believe that if the Afghan state was to generate even $10 billion per year from its mineral deposits, its gross national product would double and provide long-term funding for Afghan security forces and other critical needs [32].

These vast amounts of minerals are deposited in different provinces around the country, divided by different ethnics, religions, languages, political parties, and cultures. In the past, these differences were unfortunately the basis for many conflicts, the result being a region with many nations (Pashton, Hazar, Tajik, Ozbik, Turkaman etc.). Whenever a nation comes to power, they try to impose their language, culture, and ideas on the others. Of course the other nations resist and try to act similarly.  A future understanding bridging these language differences needs either a compromise on one of those languages, or another international language, e.g. English. 

Consequently, there is no body, party, nor organizations, neither official nor unofficial, able to define one Afghan nation acceptable to all.

The problem is that when a person like Karzai rises to power, or a king during Afghan history, or parties like communists and Mojahedin or Taliban, they use their power to gain strength and direction for their ethnic and religious interests, not looking after the general interest. Everyone is trying to force other nations to accept their own rule for nationality and citizenship. For example, Pashton ethnics have always displayed such power, and they think like racists and will try to make other nations like Hazara, Tajik, Ozbik accept their ethnic supremacy. Because of a lack of common interest, these ethnics are not compatible and never will be, if the situation continues like today.
Now we know why the Karzai regime is not successful, even if more than forty countries have contributed with billions of dollars for maintaining and developing security, macro-economics, science etc.: The regime is failing, and furthermore widely known around the world as a back-oriented and corrupt regime, because it lacks any plan for developing other ethnics or nations within the country. 

For countries with the same problems and possibilities like Afghanistan, I suggest the following solution: A new political strategy by the name of geological politics!

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[25] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistans-resources-could-make-it-the-richest-mining-region-on-earth-2000507.html.

[26] Afghanistan’s Energy Future and its Potential Implications, Eurasianet.org.

[27] "Afghanistan's Mineral Fortune" (pdf). Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security Report. 2011. http://www.uvm.edu/ieds/node/568/.

[28]"Afghanistan: The Saudi Arabia of Lithium?". News.discovery.com. June 14, 2010. http://news.discovery.com/earth/afghanistan-minerals-lithium.html. Retrieved November 14, 2010.

[29] "Afghanistan is suddenly wealthy: US finds $1 trillion in mineral deposits". Ksdk.com. http://www.ksdk.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=204154. Retrieved November 14, 2010.

[30] Sengupta, Kim (June 15, 2010). "Afghanistan's resources could make it the richest mining region on earth". London: Independent.co.uk. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghanistans-resources-could-make-it-the-richest-mining-region-on-earth-2000507.html. Retrieved November 14, 2010.

[31] Page, Jeremy; Evans, Michael (June 15, 2010). "Taleban zones mineral riches may rival Saudi Arabia says Pentagon". The Times (London). http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article7149696.ece.

[32] O'Hanlon, Michael E. "Deposits Could Aid Ailing Afghanistan", The Brookings Institution, 16 June 2010.

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Geological Politics

It is generally agreed that economy is the basis for social development. But we would be wise to remember that economy cannot stand alone and that natural resources are in their turn the basis for economy, not the other way around. It doesn’t matter how much investments we pour into projects if the necessary natural resources are not available. Investments cannot create energy, chemical elements, nor minerals. And when natural resources dwindle, like in so many cases today, economy suffers.

On the other hand, countries with abundant natural resources are – all other things being equal – in a better position to flourish economically. But they need not do so. All sorts of problems can prevent a country from utilizing its natural resources, like colonial plundering, ethnic conflicts, ignorance, or lack of investments. Indeed, most developing countries exhibit some of these characteristics where abundant natural resources are offset by external factors or by their social or governmental systems.

In the case of Afghanistan, we see a mixture of all the above mentioned as well as several other factors, preventing Afghanistan in using its vast natural resources for economic development.

To reverse this trend we need to develop the geological politics of Afghanistan, i.e. to rethink policy according to Afghanistan’s natural resources. Geological politics is a national plan for the development of the economy of the country, based upon the measurement of important natural resources. Such development will in turn also develop politics and culture, eventually changing the life of the whole population for the better.

We therefore need a real and practical plan for using economic minerals and geological resources to develop businesses locally and with international cooperation, to develop the country´s economy and culture, in order to improve political decision-making, and in the end to strengthen the Afghan state in order to increase regional stability.

This definition of geological politics may not cover all countries around the world, but it may be valid for most countries with abundant natural resources and social or government systems detrimental to the well-being of the people.

With Afghanistan, we see many types of problems like ethnics, languages, religions, social positions, directions, political parties and etc. If you can solve one or two of these problems, the remaining ones will take center stage as the country’s main conflicts, eventually reviving the defunct conflict once again, and the cycle of these conflicts repeats itself over time again and again.

By the strategy of geological politics, however, we are able to eliminate and destroy all these kinds of problems and to create new values for life so that all have the same gain and loss, the same social rights and role relative to the geological resources and amounts of products, in order to live peacefully together as one nation.

This way, a dynamic long-term policy can be forged, based upon laws of nature; not upon ethnics, religion, race, party, or other type which have failed over time or were just good for one group or a special type of people or nation for a short time. The majority of political systems in control of such countries right now are dictatorships, running into increasing problems with their own populations, like the people of Middle East standing against these different political systems and overthrowing one after another by "Arab springs" or "Arabic revolutions".
As an example of how the Afghan government can use the country's resources, I will suggests that for a start it could use the energy of the large coal energy resources in central Afghanistan to melt the Hajigak iron ore rocks, only about 10 km distance from one another. This would be a realistic plan based upon the country's geological resources and other options available to the Afghan government today (almost all countries are ready to help the Karzai regime).

A good forge for melting material would be the tungsten (or molybdenum) that has a melting point (3,422 C or 6,192 F [33], and the melting point for hematite (that make about 62% of Hajigak mine) is between 1,475 - 1,565 C). Tungsten is thus having special characteristics to make it as crucible in that it has the highest melting point of all metals, high strength against high temperature, good conductivity for heat and electricity and high absorption capacity for radioactive radiation and X-rays.  Its uses are in medical, printing, connectors, technical research, and many others areas of industry. It will be found in Badakhshan, Baghlan, Bamyan, Wardak, Gazni, Zabul, Kandahar and Farah provinces in type of veins, shear zones and skarn that has hosted in Proterozicum age [34]. So, after this, the country will own the largest steel industri in the Middle East and in the south of Asia, able to create thousands of jobs, and each job will in turn create new trade relations and a new consumer culture!

Correspondingly, we can identify other geological resources that products depend on, the utilization of which can be used as a means to develop local economy and culture.

In this definition a geologist is not just a geologist in the traditional sense, as a tool for whatever interest may prevail, because today he/she is having also an ethical responsibility to defend against people that use the natural products and phenomena with only their own desires and interests in mind. In another word; only a geologist with a knowledge of the Earth´s materials also knows about the quantities and qualities, effects and values of the minerals in a broader sense. What is needed now is that the geologists come out of the closet and into the battlefield, confronting people responsible for current misuse of materials.

Otherwise, statesmen will continue to use nature wrongly against their own people, their country, and its economic progress and development.

Most of us know about economic problems (financial crisis), atomic problems (North Korea, Pakistan and Iran for example) and climate change, but most of the Worlds population do not recognize the main role of natural materials in relation to even daily products, and politicians are using the products against other nations.

Who discovered and produced the uranium? And who utilized it in the production of nuclear energy or nuclear bombs? And who measures the power of these things? Of course scientists, basically geologists, but who will use it? Statesmen or political leaders who know nothing about it!

So who is to blame? What is defining a terrorist? If a person officially or unofficially helps political leaders to kill civilians or to eliminate and destroy a nation, is he/she not a terrorist? And if not, so what do you call him/her?

Most people of Asia believe and accept the unchangable character and eternity of many things. But their views do not necessarily agree with the laws of Nature. When confronted by the laws of nature, we must necessarily forget these ideas, habits, and every law and system, so far based upon sand, and we must understand and adapt to the conditions of the present and the future!

Now is the time to change the Worlds political structures and systems of leadership. There are two ways:

1. Geologists must be leaders, or 
2. The people and their leaders must learn geology. 

Without a knowledge of geology, we shall not be able to establish long-term stable solutions for production and economics, and we face the depletion of natural ressources, resource wars, climate crises and a host of other problems.

With this goal in mind, geology must be divided into many specific parts, like mineral and non-mineral resources, and sub-parts of each of them, for example with minerals divided into metallic and non-metallic, fuel and non-fuel etc. Each of these parts must be managed by professional groups, but governed according to the overall purpose to create a self-sufficient and a self-reliant government and to define a unique nation for a country, like Afghanistan.

Each the defined committees, responsible for each part of geology, must publish the results of their research and their proposals for resource policy into an organic system, organised within a center, for everybody understanding and sharing a common knowledge, in order for a democratic government to make decisions on the production and use of ressources.

But unfortunately, we know, it never happened in Afghanistan in the past. The people of Afghanistan have been accepting as well as a fact that all mines in Afghanistan belonged to the King and his family or his clan (until 1978), and after that to one party by the name of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), owning all mines and geological resources, and giving grants, licenses, and concession permission to the USSR, which transported oil and gas from northern part of Afghanistan to the USSR. Sometimes the pipelines broke down, because the pressure was very high because the USSR wanted to transport the resources very fast. After that, the clan-party or ethnic party came to the power (the Mujahedin government in 1992). They explored some of the mines, especially in the northern and northeastern parts of the country, and with very brutal methods, namely by way of dynamite explosions, obtaining very small quantities in relation to the mass exploded. For example one pound or one kilo produced from many tons of lapis - the rest is exploded into dust.

Fig.(4-A) Detonated dynamite shoots rocks and dust out of an emerald mine in the mountains above the Panjshir Valley village of Khenj, Afghanistan [35].

For now (2011), all natural resources of Afghanistan are owned solely by the government, and now these mines are put to sale and auction so that the future owners (mostly foreigners) have a free hand to explore and use the mines without any scientific, economic, and political controls, all because of the unprofessional Karzai government and its corrupt ministers, thinking only of themselves and their position.

The problem is that the corrupted Karzai government has a focus on economic minerals like copper, zinc, aluminum, iron, manganese, chromium, cobalt, gold, lead etc. It is feared, that the mines of these minerals may become empty, if the government find success to their business.

The present situation in Afghanistan is very complex. But if the government of Afghanistan wants to establish itself as an independent one, which is a prerequisite for the future economy and politics of this country, they must recognize the mineral demands of the World market and then produce and export it themselves. I will call these minerals “strategic minerals”, in that they may be the basis for saving the country from widespread or multiple affinities.

But not, if the mining minister of Afghanistan travels around the World, announcing mine auctions or mines sales, a typical example of the actions of what I call "the Mafia of mines"!

Actually, the Karzai mining minister seems ignorant about the fundamental role of the iron ore industry during the last 60 years growth of the steel industries around the World, so important for many countries for developing their economy and policy.

Another problem is the unusable education system; meaning that school and other education systems materials are not fitting with the real situation of the country. The task of the government is therefore to educate young people into modern technology. This would be a guarantee for an independent and self-dependent future Afghanistan. 

But the education minister is satisfied with the old and unrealistic system, the regime is thinking only in terms of quantity, like how many are made able to read, no matter what they read. What is needed is evidently a new period with actual changes in curriculum, by which educated Afghan people will be able to communicate and integrate with the education systems of the developed World, in the end also with World economy. The present international aid with the Afghan education system is doing the exact opposite of this: They are creating only necktie Talibans, like the present minister for education in Afghanistan, Farooq Wardak, who presently changed the name of a Kabul high school from a female name to a male one!

People like this are evidently not what Afghanistan needs in order to develop its natural ressources, economy and culture.

Afghanistan is rich in minerals, discovered and undiscovered. It is generally a good idea to distinguish between mineral resources and mineral reserves. The term "resource" refers to hypothetical and speculative, undiscovered, sub economic mineral deposits or an undiscovered deposit of unknown economics. "Reserves" are concentrations of a usable mineral or energy commodity, which can be economically and legally extracted at the time of evaluation [36].

By this definition it is stupid that the Afghan government and special mining minister Mr. Wahidullah Sharani today poses like a salesman, offering the minerals of the country (both reserves and resources) to companies and industrials of the World, like in China, US, India and Iran!
 
Copper and iron as a feed for industry was used directly proportional to the increase in demand and consumed by the population before and after the World War II until today, and therefore many mineral mines around the world are depleting rapidly [36]. So, it is rational for the large industries around the World to re-open mines like in Afghanistan (c.f. contract between Afghan government and Chinese industry about the Aynak mine in the Logar province south of Kabul).

Some website as [37] published: “There is a massive copper deposit located in Balkhab district of Saripul (North Afghanistan) province, Sharani told reporters in Kabul today at a joint press conference with U.S. deputy under secretary of defense Paul Brinkley. It is valued at billions of U.S. dollars and one of the biggest untapped copper mines in Afghanistan.” And continued: ”This new copper discovery is bigger than current Aynak copper deposit in Logar province, southeast of Kabul, according to a report published by the GSA today (1/31/2011).”

And now the mine minister of the Afghan government is trying to sell the largest iron mine in the area (Hajegak or Aajagak) in Bamyan province West of Kabul to some industries, who may pay like USD 400 million per year to Karzai’s government!?  This mine has 1769.9 million tones with ca. 62% hematite, [38] se table (1), which means best quality iron ore. Not a good deal at all!

Table 1. Identified iron resources at Hajigak following Afghan-Soviet exploration in the 1960s [38].

Maybe the policy of the Afghan government is characteristic for the corruption system polluting the Hamid Karzai government. They do not understand yet, that the cause of strife and war today, and during the past 30 years in Afghanistan, is about the ownership of the mineral resources and reserves around this country. The Karzai regime also does not know that their ownership may give them power to industrialize and develop on the commercial market, or minimum they may use it to their advantage as a powerful political bargaining chip.

It is not difficult to develop the mines in Afghanistan, which is what apparently the Karzai regime fears when giving them away to foreigners; actually, they can use the coal mines as wheels or energy supply to melt the iron mine that is deposited almost in the same area (about 10 km apart).

If we look around in our homes, almost everything is made from mineral products, and in most of them you can see the metals.  The great industrial nations, the powerful political regimes, and the strongest military establishments around the world, owe their independence to their supplies of diversified mineral resources and their self-control in using it. We can see some countries like in the Middle East being based upon just their petroleum reserves, but each has self-control over their reserves.

The Karzai regime, on the other hand, does not know anything about the multifaceted role of Afghan mineral resources, especially economic minerals, about the values, costs, long-term capital investment, reserves, distribution, ownership, and international flow of minerals, being some of the factors of these minerals.

Actually, this regime does not have a real plan for economic development. For example, if you ask them about the next five years economic plan for the country, maybe they will be reporting on education at least five years ago, or telling you about imported stuffs as an ambition of theirs, for example imported electricity from Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, or oil and gas from Iran or Turkmenistan, or other stuffs from Pakistan and so on, in contrast to which the Afghan export is only rugs and fruits to some countries!

The Karzai regime does not realize that the real and potential resources of the country can be used and organized for change, and the mining ministry has only some general information about mineral resources many years before (1960s).

The vast scale of Afghanistan´s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists, maintaining that the USA has measured nearly $ 1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan.

After this announcement, the Afghan Mining Minister Wahedullah Shahrani flew around the world to sell these potential resources, instead of making an efficient plan (I’m really confused when hearing that Mr. Wahedullah Shahrani was educated as an economist in England?). This enormous potential could gradually change Afghanistans future to a rich one, giving it an important role in the area and maybe in the world.

The previously unknown deposits include huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and critical industrial meals like lithium – so big that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, United States officials believe [39]. This source continues that an internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and tablets.

The figure below (5) shows where some of the economic mineral sources in Afghanistan are located (click to enlarge).

Fig.(5) Geographical map in which the principal mineralized areas are marked and with an estimation of the potential values [39].

The total value of the minerals in this figure is $ 908 billion, and it was Monday June 14, 2010, when most of the major news media of the World announced: “The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion of untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials [40].  Later the Afghan government pretended that the US claim about the mineral resources is not a discovery, and that before this announcement, the main information about the mineral resources in Afghanistan within the archive of the mining ministry, that in fact the value of minerals in Afghanistan is more than $1 trillion (recently Wahidullah Sharani, the Afghan mining minister, has emphazised that the minerals in Afghanistan has a value of $3 trillion [41]. For example only three billion cubic meter coal filled the northern area in Afghanistan. Before that, [42] Bloomberg, Eltaf Najafizada (1/31/11) published: “Afghan Minister Wahidullah Sharani said geologists have discovered untapped mineral deposits worth an estimated $3 trillion.”

This huge economic potential is of course amazing.  Conversely, it affected Karzai’s corrupt team, and the Karzai government could also be strenghtened by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control over the resources.  Just in 2009, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine [43]. This newspaper added more about competition and challenge between USA and China, and USA worrying:  At the same time, American officials fear resource-hungry China will try to dominate the development of Afghanistans mineral wealth, which could upset the United States, given its heavy investment in the region. After winning the bid for its Aynak copper mine in the Logar Province, China clearly wants more, American officials said. The New York Times writer gave this information about the Afghan capacity to use this big wealth: Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection either. “The big question is, can this be developed in a responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially responsible?” Mr. Brinkley (photo in Fig. 6) said. “No one knows how this will work”.  Jack Medlin, a geologist of USGS said “This is a country that has no mining culture. They’ve had some small artisanal mines, but now there could be some very, very large mines that will require more than just a gold pan.”

Fig (6) Mr. Paul A. Brinkley serves as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and Director of the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations.

Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious challenge. “No one has tested that law; no one knows how it will stand up in a fight between the central government and the provinces,” observed Paul A. Brinkley.

This newspaper claimed that the Pentagon is helping Afghan officials to arrange start seeking bids on mineral rights by fall (2011), officials said. “The Ministry of Mines is not ready to handle this, “Mr. Brinkley said. “We are trying to help them get ready.”  Again, we have the amazing fact that Mr. Wahidullah Sharani, minister of Afghanistan Mining Ministry is claiming that he was taught economics in some London university!

After the mineral wealth news the Karzai team becomes more and more avaricious as how to theft this huge mineral wealth, by using their governing positions, whilst the Afghan economy is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the USA and other industrialized countries. Afghanistan’s gross domestic product is only about $12 billion.
 
Afghanistan is one of the richest countries of the World in mineral resources, but this country uses the minerals like ancient people used flint, chert, quartz, obsidian, quartzite, soapstone, and limestone, for utensils, and for carving. Clay as today in Afghanistan was widely and extensively used, first for pottery and then for bricks. In another word, Afghanistan is satisfied with the ancient and primitive knowledge about the use of economic minerals. Therefore, the mineral resources have remained largely intact.

There are no intentions or plans for change. The Afghan governments are made and woven out of the people by the delusioned will from which they come to government and power, but remain busy with their personal desires or private business, or involved with their ethnic or religious or political collusion, so that they forget others, which is why today all people are calling this government a corrupt one!
---

[33] C. R. Hammond (2004). The Elements, in Handbook of Chemistry and Physics 81st edition. CRC press. ISBN 0849304857.

[34] USGS-Mines and Mineral Occurrences of Afghanistan 2002.

[35] http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/emeralds-of-afghanistan/.

[36] Economic Mineral Deposits Meda L. Jensen & Alan M. Bateman, 1981).

[37] http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8469

[38] Afghan-Soviet exploration in the 1960s.

[39] The New York Times published June 13, 2010.

[40] http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/14/say_what_afghanistan_has_1_trillion_in_untapped_mineral_resources.

[41] From Ariana TV news 17-7-2011.

[42] Bloomberg, Eltaf Najafizada   (1/31/11).

([43] The New York Times, published June 13-2010.

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Global Change

After the USSR broke into pieces and became Russia and independent states, the structure of the Central Asian region changed from bipolar into one with many, smaller states, and some of them wanting a predominant power over others; at least over their neighbor lands like with Pakistan, or Arabic lands, or Iran, who all want to dominate e.g. Afghanistan and Lebanon, sending their agents and terrorist groups to kill people (most evident examples are Afghanistan and Iraq), in order to create instability and put the government under pressure, until it accepts their demands. In Afghanistan, this state of affairs is exemplified by Karzai, who will stand against the US, if Pakistan was attacked by the United States: “If America, India, or anyone else attacked Pakistan, we will stand by Pakistan“, said Karzai in an interview aired by Pakistan private television channel Geo (23. Oct. 2011) “Afghanistan is a brother of Pakistan, we will never betray Pakistan,” he added! [44].

The natural question is how these inexperienced governments are able successfully to pursue their politics when the USSR was not? Basically their power is based upon simple and uneducated peoples whom they misuse against neighbor lands with terror, agents (politics, business, etc.), drug trafficing, combat equipment, slavery (especially children and women), hostages, and many other types of means of asymmetric warfare, which all contribute to instability to be used to their advantage.

This way, the powerful country breaks the defence system of the neighboring, weaker country and moves over the borders of the defenseless neighbor like in plate tectonics, where the old plate goes under and the new, lighter plate comes up, pressing the old plate downwards so that it eventually disappears. And the lighter, appearing plate is the new power on the surface for all to see, and therefore the other countries of the World will allow it to contribute in the decision making processes related to the future global policy, while the aim of each is different. If these kinds of policies proceed unopposed, what could happen globally, and what policies are called for to secure World peace?

The freedom and democracy that many countries like America and Europe often consider to be universal, have a quite deferent meaning in the opinion of some of the newly appeared, powerful Asian governments! This is the principal danger, and it will effect the global system like a powerful earthquake! Today, the trends in World economics, production and marketing is not like the free trade system of the industrial revolution, but towards nationalism, culture preferences and religious proselyting, which is used by most of the newly appearing, powerful governments to extinct other nationals, cultures, and religions, like with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan: Saudi Arabia helps fundamentalism, Iran exports their Islamic revolution, and Pakistan sends terrorists to kill people, to create bloodbaths on local peoples with different religions, to create instability and demolish historical treasures like the Buddah statues in the Bamyan province of Central Afghanistan.

So how can we mix the Eastern and Western ideas about freedom and democracy into a global one?

Based upon the global economic combinations and activities, where each tries to obtain their profits and prove their identity by imposing it upon other nations, it is clear, that one day we might see a clash directly between Eastern powers and powers like the US and Europe.

So what is the future of democracy in the South of Asia, especially when the aim of each country is very much different from the others? It would be a mistake to copy the Western democracy model to an area like Asia, which is very different, because the Asian countries do not accept the same meaning as the West do about freedom. For example, the Western idea is that in elections the majority votes is the winner, because this principle is the best for society, but the same principle for a country like Afghanistan is unfavorable, because the majority of voters in Afghanistan is illiterate (more than 70%), you can misuse them very easily. This is the main problem that powerful neighbor countries misuse illiterates and ignorant people as terrorists or other types of agents. In conclusion, it is impossible to import or export a democracy like a package from one country to the other. It is the people of the particular country which must decide which type of government would best fit with their culture and other systems of that country.

If there is a problem about understanding democracy and freedom, it is mostly one between the people and their government. An example: The people in the most of the Middle East are not allowed liberty, freedom, to get education, and to travel, especially women and minorities with different ethnics, language, or religion.  Now the people of Middle-East are overthrowing their dictatorship regimes one after one, but the question is now about the future of the Middle-East and type of the new governments. What is in this situation the guarantee for security and peace in the Middle East, so very important for the Europe and US, because the major part of global energy is located there?

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[44] http://www.canada.com/news/canada-in-afghanistan/Kabul+would+back+Pakistan+attack+Karzai/5594244/story.html.

afgeopol@gmail.com

Minerals as the Cultural Base

Paleolithic man, beginning 400,000 years ago, used numerous varieties of minerals: Chalcedony, quartz, rock crystal, serpentine, obsidian, pyrite, jasper, steatite, amber, jadeite, calcite, amethyst, and fluorspar. Later ochres of mineral paints were utilized. The Neolithic (or New Stone Age) period marks a development of human technology, beginning about 9,500 BC in some parts of the Middle East, and later in other parts of the World [45], in which man became acquainted with gold and copper, he also used pyrite, sillimanite, and turquois [46].

Lapis Lasuli was cherished thousands of years ago by the peoples of Mesopotamia (where the blue stone symbolized the heavens and was used to decorate the ceilings of temples), Persia, Greece and Rome. In Egypt, it was used to adorn statues of the gods. Lapis was first mined 6,000 years ago. In those days, the stones were mined in what is now Afghanistan. In other cultures, Lapis lazuli was also worshipped as a holy stone. In far Eastern countries, Lapis was considered to be a gemstone with magical powers. Numerous seals, rings, scarabs, and other objects were crafted from the blue stone (for more information see [47]).

The discovery, exploitation, ownership, and barter of minerals is very important in the cultural development of Man, such as in the past when the use of gemstone, nonmetallic minerals, and metallic minerals changed the life forms and styles of peoples. In history, Egyptian and Greek cultures discovered and praised minerals and gaining multiple capabilities by using them the right way. This way,  during thousands of years, large portions of the human culture have used the mineral power to enhance their traditions, history and meanings.

The use and mining of gemstones reached a high art among the early Egyptian, Babylonian, Assyrian, and Indian cultures. It was not just a matter of culture, but also a central part of economic development.

The only mineral of Afghanistan that is familiar for its cultural use, is lapis lazuli, as it was an economic commodity in the ancient Egyptian culture. Lapis lazuli is very famous because of its blue color, and even today it is extracted in Afghanistan, but by very ignorant and brutal methods and only to be used for decorations, cf. Figure A above.

The importance of minerals today is paramount - they are central in the production of almost every product. But some governments like Afghan governors do not know that the production of everything from food to clothing, and even housing construction and transport and liquid medicine, army tools, etc. are all depending upon the minerals.

Already tens of years ago the United States government developed many controls, subsidies, and agencies designed for the conservation of natural resources, encouragement of research and production of mineral deposits, stockpiling of strategic minerals, and other efforts to provide an adequate supply of minerals for defense, private industry, and consumption [48].

If we need to know the effect and power of minerals in our everyday life, it may be enough to remember the historical periods and the mineral operations developed during human civilization and how it changed with the minerals, such as the Stone Age changed to the Copper Age when man began hammering tools out of native copper. This age long preceded the Bronze Age, when Mesopotamians learned that instead of adding arsenic to copper to form the earliest bronze, adding a little tin to a lot of copper made a much harder metal, which we call bronze. If you would like to know more about when which mineral was extracted, see table (2-1) in ([46]).

Now, if Afghanistan sold all their mines, as Mr. Wahidullah Sharani (Mining Minister of Afghanistan 2011) would have us do, it would also sell all the future of the Afghan people. And even if the price was sky high, as the corrupted government wants, what would it imply for the progress of Afghanistan?
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[45] P. Bellwood, First Farmers: The origins of agricultural societies (2004), pp. 68-69.

[46] Jensen, Mead L. & Alan M. Bateman, 1981. Economic Mineral Deposits 3rd edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

[47] http://www.canequest.com/lapis.asp.

[48] Politics and Geology, H. Andrew Ireland, Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science (1903-),Vol. 67, No. 2 (Summer, 1964), pp. 288-295, (article consists of 8 pages). Published by: Kansas Academy of Science . Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3626660.

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Afghanistan after 2014

Former US ambassador in Kabul (April 2009-july 2011), Mr. Karl Eikenberry, warned that the revenue of Afghan National Army would reach $ 2.5 billion by 2014, while the cost of this security force would be about $ 7 billion annually. The question is, who will pay the difference? He believes that the Afghan National Army may break down or collapse.

“We believe that by the year 2014, just the sustainment cost of the army and police alone could be reaching $7 billion, and who's going to be paying that $7 billion? Well the Afghan national government by 2014 will probably be generating revenue of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, so there's a significant shortfall, and it will be incumbent then upon the United States and its allies to pay for those resource shortfalls.”

General Eikenberry also said there were concerns about the "political" reliability of the security forces, and whether their loyalty will be to the central government or to regional strongmen, like in the past.

General Eikenberry said there were four main issues the US-led coalition was confronting in its quest to hand responsibility for the country over to the Afghan government.

They are:

1. The continuing support within Pakistan for the Taliban, and the havens granted to insurgents; 
2. The ability of the Afghan security forces to provide security for their people; 
3. The economic stability of the country, particularly when the flood of coalition development aid begins to slow; and 
4. The ability of the government to crack down on corruption and govern for all Afghans.

"The [recent troop] surge has set the stage for the transition to full Afghan sovereignty by the end of 2014, and I think that the conditions that the surge has set makes the transition a possibility, I would not give a probability against that", said General Eikenberry.

He also noted that the coalition would not be pulling out of Afghanistan in 2014, but would actually retain a sizeable military and aid presence to help the Afghan government.

"We hope that by the end of 2014, we achieve de facto sovereignty, with the Afghans having the responsibility for security with international support, that detention of Afghan citizens on the battlefield is entirely done by the Afghan government, that the Afghans are able to have more direct control over governance in their country," said he.

"Given the progress that's been made in this country over the last 10 years, I think it is possible to get there." (Oct 24, 2011 11:25pm [49]).

In my opinion, Afghan society has many types of deep-rooted conflicts: Ethnic, religious, language, political parties, and many other sub-conflicts. In each of these conflicts friends and foes may change roles in another conflict so that friends in one conflict are foes in another. Again and again, if one of these conflicts take back stage, another one comes into focus, being the fundamental conflict. The resurgence of a yet another conflict is also possible. Nobody, be they political parties, government nor non-governmental organizations and governments, were able to propose a solution for these different conflicts in order to define one nation or a solution, to give rights to, and make friends between, all ethnics and parties.

So there is no reason to stop the internal unrest, actually it is the above mentioned conflicts, that have lead to the present situation on Afghanistan. But for some foreigners the focus is now on the game changes after withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan (maybe 2014), where the new great game starts on the fate of the region.

"The great game is geo-strategic in nature," states Dr. M. Ehsan Ahrari, a professor of national security and strategy at the Joint Forces Staff College in Norfolk USA. Other economists, however, contend that the fight for control in international geo-politics always revolves around natural resources.

The term "The New Great Game" first gained traction in the mid-90s as a result of the geo-politics attached with the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline. This game focuses on the vast amounts of unexplored energy reserves in the Caspian Sea, consisting principally of oil and gas. While the events unfolding in the region may seem like a battle to curb regional militancy, the underlying struggle is for the control and influence over trade routes and energy resources. Thus, the battle for control over Central Asia is well underway [50].

So, the fighting strategy in Afghanistan in the future would change from battle against the terrorism and drugs trafficking to the takeover of the geological resources og the country, a game in which right now Mr. Wahidullah Sharani, Mine Minister of the Karzai regime, trades some of the important mines like the large copper mine “Aynak” in the Logar province, and the iron mine “Hajigak” in the Bamyan province, and the oil and gas fields in the Northern area.

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[49] http://www.optuszoo.com.au/news/world/the-age/afghan-sovereignty-possible-not-probable/492849.

[50] By Farhan Reza, Osman Husain and M.H. Yousuf (http://treasure.com.pk/daily/new-great-game-20110721.html).

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Aynak

The geological history of Afghanistan is very complex, because as a collision zone with block structure between Asia and Indian plates the country sits as a field of minerals and tectonic structures like a natural fabric for geological resources.

Fig (7): Tectonic map of Afghanistan and the location of the Aynak mine, after USGS. Sections of Aynak copper deposits, refer [52] (USGS).

U.S Geological Survey in 2002 reported more than 1,000 mines and minerals occurrences in Afghanistan. This report is compiled by Orris & Bliss [51].

One of these mines is the ”Aynak Copper Deposit”, located some 30 km. south-south-east of Kabul in the south-east of Afghanistan. Some geologists estimate that this mine is the largest in the World (click to enlarge).

Fig (8): Cross sections of Aynak copper deposits, after ([52] USGS).

The Aynak Copper deposit was discovered by Russian geologists in 1974, and it is estimated to contain 11.3 million tons of copper [53].

In a PowerPoint presentation from the British Geological Survey (BGS) [54] a database is mentioned that these geologists created from exploration boreholes in Aynak. They have translated all reports relating to Aynak from Russian into English and explained that Aynak is a world-class copper deposit - it is an example of sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposit with similarities to Zambian Copper Belt. Ayank is one of a number of copper prospects that occur in the central part of a discrete fault-bounded tectonic terrane known as the Kabul block. The deposit occupies an area of 7.0 km2 and is divided into two prospects, Central Anyak and Western Aynak. The mineralization is disseminated and stratiform within schist and calcareous metasedimentary rocks of Vendian-Cambrian age (about 555-600 Ma years ago).

The Central Prospect located on a shallow-dipping eastern limb of an anticline. The Western Prospect occurs at the periclinal closure of the anticline.  The below figures show more details from Aynak copper deposits (click to enlarge).

Fig. (9) The stratiform of copper deposits in Aynak mine in

the Logar province in the south-east of Afghanistan [52].

In 24/nov/2007 Afghan Mining Ministry has awarded this large mine to Chinese companies, Metallurgical Corp of China (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper, after two years of bidding.  The Chinese have agreed to invest nearly $3 billion in order to set up mining operations and overcome the lack of basic infrastructure.

These companies announced that the production of copper from Aynak would be starting in 2013. The first phase of the Ayank copper mining project would have a designed capacity of 200,000 tons  of copper in concentrate, said Zeng Tao, sales manager of the copper and zinc unit of Hong Kong-listed MCC. He said capacity would be expanded to 500,000 tons  in the second phase. He added the Aynak project is 75 percent owned by MCC and 25 percent by Jiangxi Copper, China’s top copper producer [55].

Some people are optimistic over this contract, especially Hamid Karzai and his cabinet: “Aynak Copper Mine is one of the most important economic projects in Afghan history, with a great impact on the Afghan social and economic development, and it is necessary to put it into operation as soon as possible,” said President Karzai while chairing the Cabinet session [56].

The Sunday Times (May 15/2005) [57] published: “Somewhere beneath the valley’s floor lies one of the world’s biggest untapped copper deposits, estimated to be worth up to $88 billion (£44 billion) – more than double Afghanistan’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007. In November, a 30-year lease was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3 billion, making it the biggest foreign investment and private business venture in Afghanistan’s history”.

As mentionend above, the winners have complex plans for how Aynak’s copper is to be used for products. But has the Karzai team also a clear plan on how to use this resource and investigation for the development of the country? There are no available sources describing the details of any governmental plan of the Karzai regime as to the use of the $400 million it got from the lease, which makes up about 45 percent of the annual budget of Afghanistan.

I am very concerned about the Aynak mine. If the lease comprises the whole of Aynak, maybe Aynak will become empty like mines in Afrika, and I am also sure that the money from Chinese companies paid for the Afghan site is used mostly for corruption and creating more distance between the government and the people, producing various social conflicts, instead of a comprehensible solution for the whole nation! In Hamid Karzai´s regime everyone is trying to help their own race, ethnics, parties, sites, religion etc.

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[51] Orris, G.J. & Bliss, J.D 2002: Mines and Mineral Occurrences of Afghanistan. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVY.

[52] USGS-Mines and Mineral Occurrences of Afghanistan 2002.

[53] http://www.embassyofafghanistan.org/AYNAKCOPPERMINE.html.

[54] Mir Sediq Minister of Mines and Industries Mines and Money, London 2005: Mining and Mineral Resources in Afghanistan.

[55] http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/06/30/mcc-copper-zinc-idUSBJI00233020100630.

[56] English news.cn 22/5/2011: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-05/22/c_13888275.htm.

[57] The Sunday Times (May 15/2005).

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The Hajigak Iron Mine

Another important large mine is the Hajigak iron mine, situated in Bamyan province in central Afghanistan, 130 km. west of Kabul. It is the largest of several iron deposits within this area.

“The Hajigak iron-ore district (1-21-34) lies in the Lobe Baba Ridge made up of Proterozoic metatmorphosed volcanogenous-carbonate rocks and Plaleozoic volcanogenous – shaly and carbonate strata. In the district there is a group of iron deposits and occurrences of the same type, Hajigak deposit being the most significant among them. All the deposits belong to a formation of stratiform metamorophosed hematite-magnetite ores. These occur in a zone of a major fault of north-east trend cutting Proterozic green schists, marbles and dolomites. The Hajigak deposit studied insufficiently comprises sixteen conformable iron ore lenses and sheets, forming a zone of approximately one kilometer in width and over 10 km in extension. The Hajigak deposit is composed of primary and semi-oxidized ores, the oxidized zone reaching a thickness of 100 meters. The primary ore consists of magnetite and hematite with irregularly disseminated by siderite, calcite, quartz, rarely plagioclase, barite and actinolite. The pyrite-magnetite ore contains 56.24-68.80 percent (av. 61.30% iron, including up to 5 % pyrite-associated iron”. For more information see [58].

Afghan-Soviet, Afghan-British geologists and USGS explorations on the geology of Hajigak iron mine can be found everywhere. These studies and some of other geologists suggests that the mine is formed by volcanic, submarine-exhalative, metosomatic  skarn, or metamorphic or combination of two or several of them. The north-west of the this mine is hosted as formations as Jawkol Formation with Middle Proterozoic age, Awband Formation together with the underlying Kab Formation are hosted as Upper Proterozoic age and other Formations, se Fig (10). (Click to enlarge).

Fig (10). Stratigraphic and cross- section through the Hajigak iron mine deposit [59].

This mine is exceptionally important in relation to the speedy development of the country, because of the nearby presence of coal mines. The coal may be conveniently used to melt the iron, being important for the production of industrial products for the World market. Local production and development would in turn generate economic growth to be used for education and cultural development, in the end to foster a new independent policy for the country. All these are the goals that relate to mining resources in Afghanistan and similar countries.

For quantity of the strata beds of iron in the rock hosted, see above (Fig. 10).

The ignorant and self-serving administration of the present Karzai regime (2011) is proving a disaster again and again. For example, the bargain with Chinese companies concerning the Aynak copper mine in which the Karzai regime sold for $88 billion coppers worth for only $3 billion! It is not just the present economic injury to people - this regime sold out for almost nothing the future of the country and its people, its economic potential, knowledge, culture and political development! The conclusion is that the administration of this regime must not be making further deals concerning the mining resources of the country until the importance of the geological resources are fully determined and recognised by the people.

At present (8/9/2011), Afghanistan Ministry of Mines announced that the preparatory work for the extraction of large iron ore of Hajigak, in the Bamyan province, will begin within two months.  According to available statistics, the nearly two billion tons of iron ore is in place. Afghan officials say that the extraction of the mine will provide three hundred million dollars annually to Afghanistan and also create work for more than thirty thousand people.  Once again, the winner of the 21 applying companies is a Chinese company.  About this auction, the deputy Minister of Mines, Mr. Abduljalil Jamrany, said that out of the 21 companies, six companies from China, France, America, Great Britain, Pakistan, and Iran are chosen for the final auction. Mr. Jamrany, added that the auction will end this month (September 2011) and that one of the six companies will be officially assigned with the right to mine and extract the iron [60].

In 2010, India terminated its own export of iron ore in order to protect its reserves for future needs. In 2011, India was approaced by president Karzai as a consequence of a new Afghan strategy, and offered the Hajigak mine as a resource. The Indian steel minister is quoted for saying that "We should not sell iron ore to other countries. With steel production in the country bound to go up in the future, we should keep it protected for future needs. We have imposed a duty on iron ore exports; we have made a beginning, we will now have to see how much the duty has impacted iron ore export". (http://www.metalnewsnet.com/Zirconium/974IyL7G915o.html).

President Hamid Karzai's government generously solved the Indian conserns about their iron ore and offered India a new strategic role in Afghanistan by awarding mining rights for the country's biggest iron deposit to a group of seven state-run and private Indian companies that bid with the support of India's government (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/afghanistan-awards-most-hajigak-iron-ore-mining-rights-to-indian-group.html).

The Hajigak mine is about 16 km. long and 550 meters deep. According to initial estimates, it would take about 180 years to extract all the iron from this mine. It means that during this period the Afghan side would take $54 billion out of about £ 285.4 billion ($ 455 billion)!

This contract, and maybe other contracts concerning oil-gas, coal fields, and the Aynak copper mine, are just bad business use of very important economic resources. If the government does not change their views but only look upon the mines of Afghanistan with a one dimensional perspective (only auction), so very soon these mines will become empty like in Africa, and the money ($300 or 400 million per year) which the Karzai government receives, may be used as part of the remuneration of the government. If it will not be use as remuneration, these figures are not real! 

An American geologist Jack Medlin (USGS) said:  “This is a country that has no mining culture. They have had some small artisanal mines, but now there could be some very, very large mines that will require more than just a gold pan.”

In addition to the large deposits of copper and iron is also found other important economic minerals like niobium, a soft metal used in producing superconducting steel, as well as rare earth-elements and large gold deposits. Among the minerals deposits is found lithium which is a metallic form and has a silvery light. The lithium is used for batteries that can be recharged by applying power to the battery. The lithium deposit is so large that an internal Pentagon memo suggests that Afghanistan could become the ‘Saudi Arabia of lithium’, which also makes one suspect that the USGS is refraining on purpose from specifying the worth of this item in the figure below (Click to enlarge).

Fig (11). This figure specifies the locations of economic minerals in Afghanistan [61].

I worry that money from Afghanistan Mine Minister’s new auction plan (September 2011) for energy resources (like oil, gas fields, and coal mines) will be misused like money gained from other sources. To realize the substance of these resources, please look at the results of AGS, BGS and USGS researchers in Afghanistan!

The main problem of the head employees in the Karzai regime is that their primary knowled of these mines are from images; they need to know that these resources are not only for fuel! Today you can use new knowledge and technologies for each of these to produce many, many things. For example: Most plastic products are related to crude oil, and vast types of products are covered by gas, likewise with coal, and so on.  All this ignorance is due to the corruption system of the regime, because the ministers of the regime are not professionals in theirs positions.
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[58] Geology and Mineral Resources of Afghanistan. Book 2 Mineral Resources of Afghanistan. Report Series, Published by British Geological Survey (BGS) 2008.

[59] Afghanistan Geological Survey (AGS) and British Geological Survey (BGS) in-http://www.bgs.ac.uk/AfghanMinerals/docs/Hajigak_A4.pdf.

[60] BBC news 8/9/2011.

[61] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1286464/US-discovers-natural-desposits-gold-iron-copper-lithium-Afghanistan.html.

afgeopol@gmail.com

Results

Geology has throughout history been fundamental to the development of the economy, politics, and culture of a country. If a country is to be independent and self-sufficient, the resources of the Earth, including water, fuels, metals, and industrial minerals are the important items, and the essential question is when and why these resources are to be extracted and utilized in order to form a realistic policy in the development of a country (like Afghanistan after 2014).

Every historical period was characterized by its strategic minerals. First stone, then bronze (copper/tin), later iron, and presently coal, oil, and gas. In the future we will see amongst others uranium and lithium (for batteries) emerge as strategic minerals.

Afghanistan is rich in many of the economic minerals that are important today, but will become even more so in the future. From an economic perspective, natural resources are defined as materials that occur in nature and can be used to create wealth [46]. Afghanistan has a lot of energy resources and possibilities like oil, gas, coal, hydropower, bioconversion, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power. But most of the country and its people have no access to basic electricity, they use light like cave-dwellers - some villages do not even know what electric light is!

This is a glaring contradiction, screaming to be solved. But the present regime of Afghanistan evidently cannot use the resources in the right way, and therefore societal, economic and political problems still persist.

Turning to the subject of global security, Afghanistan is today exporting opium, terrorism, refugees, and other ills to the world, helped by strong neighbors, who have no interest in a stronger Afghanistan. On the one hand, the present situation of Afghanistan can be seen as one of the results of the pending global crisis with a competition for strategic economic minerals. On the other hand, the situation in Afghanistan, Iraq and other areas is also fuelling the very same crisis, with weapon traffickers, narcotics smugglers, and terrorists etc. achieving profits on the expense of the majority, and with growth for all sides depending upon the political situation of corrupt systems. While these countries have both potential and the richest economical geo-resources, when administered by governments that know nothing about the multirole of these resources, further burdens will be added to the crisis. It is a great problem and also dangerous for everybody around the World!

So, the international community has a need for a stronger Afghanistan. We must not repeat the mistake made by the international community committed after the Soviet withdrawal after 1989, when the stage was left to the Taliban. 

It was the task and responsibility of both the new and the previous Afghan government to use the resources mentioned above to narrow the great gap, and first of all to create public education as a forerunner for economic growth.  Instead, education is focused on literacy only, not on what is actually being read, and the mineral resources, being the backbone of economic development, are sold to other nations by the minister of Mines in Afghanistan, while Afghanistan needs everything. The current article IX of the Afghan Constitution is very cruel and ignorant in that it gives an open hand to every type of government to sell, or give away, or whatever they would decide, without sufficient control of the Afghan people. But you do not get a stronger Afghanistan by giving away people's future in the form of mining rights and by basing education on outdated materials and principles.

This means that the country has no policy, no economy, nor culture, and if the government of this country sells the mineral resources of the country, it will never be independent, but always hang on others. Therefore this country is permanently the poorest one on the World. A country that does not have its own production, must base its culture on other countries' culture.

Today everything is connected with everything else, like in a chain - if you take one part out, you destroy it all. If you have a good economy, you are able to develop culture and to define a good policy, but your economy is depending upon mineral reserves and mineral resources. If you have no raw materials or products, you will need to import commodities from other nations, to act like an invisible culture to be imported with their product materials, it means that you are like an empty pot, filled by others, and you do not have anything to be named your self-culture. At present, Afghanistan and the Afghan people are like free instruments for all to misuse, kill, destroy their life, and plundering their houses and their natural resources, and now this has been locked into an international tradition! And nobody has a workable solution.

People must instead be trained in their home countries geological resources and how to use them in building the national economy. If this happened, I am sure that terrorism, promoted by neighbors like Iran and Pakistan, would not be prevailing like today!  

Afghanistan has experienced many types of conflicts, internal and external, and sometimes the internal conflicts become significant and sometimes the external conflicts become the most important and determinative. But Afghan mining projects that are established for the benefit of the Afghan people would be able to unite the people across the linguistic, religious, ethnic conflicts, dividing them today.

Securing peace in the region in the longer term, it is necessary to have a long-term economic planning, based on the geological resources, which can integrate into a single nation, across the current conflicts.

Afghan governments have a responsibility to explore the economic minerals of the country, and the development of mineral deposits is dependent upon the geological, geochemical, geophysical conditions and environments, and of course the decisions on the political and economic factors are very important.

I suggest that all countries around the World assist the Afghan people, giving to them a chance to develop into an independent country, not dictated by minorities or selfish wishes. The assistance could include research around the country by geological methods, and after completing data, the necessary first steps to prioritize and create a political plan for developing the resources.

It is time to liberate the people from rotten political systems that are not consistent with human lives and nature. These systems are in themselves the main problem.

To march forward and not backwards, political man must also be a geologist and vice versa!

afgeopol@gmail.com